If – Then For Non-mathematicians
It’s easy to get off track with If – Then thinking.
Here are some examples. If we buy a new machine, then we will increase production. If we hire a new salesperson, then we will increase sales. If we lower the interest rates, then people will borrow more money.
Each example sounds logical, yet often falls short of the expected outcomes. Why is this?
The simplicity of If – Then thinking does not account for the uncertainty of human behavior. If we buy a new machine and our operators are properly trained and it is properly installed and demand for production remains present and we can account for all the other variables, then we will increase production.
The only problem here is that you can never account for all of the variables. That’s why it’s easy to get off track with If – Then thinking.
